Coastal Impacts of Climate Change in the Northwest: A Summary of the Findings of the upcoming National Climate Assessment

The many thousands of miles of Northwest marine coastline are extremely diverse and contain important human-built and natural assets upon which our communities and ecosystems depend. Due to the variety of coastal landform types (e.g., sandy beaches, rocky shorelines, bluffs of varying slopes and composition, river deltas, and estuaries), the region’s marine coastal areas stand to experience a wide range of climate impacts, in both type and severity. These impacts include increases in ocean temperature and acidity, erosion, and more severe and frequent inundation from the combined effects of rising sea levels and storms, among others.Increases in coastal inundation and erosion are key concerns. A recent assessment determined that the coastal areas of Washington and Oregon contain over 56,656 hectares(140,000 acres) of land within 1.0-meter (3.3-feet) elevation of high tide (Strauss et al. 2012).Rising sea levels coupled with the possibility of intensifying coastal storms will increase the likelihood of more severe coastal flooding and erosion in these areas.The Northwest is also facing the challenge of increasing ocean acidification, and is experiencing these changes earlier, and more acutely, than most other regions around the globe(NOAA OAR 2012).The Third National Climate Assessment is scheduled for release in the spring of 2014.The authors will provide an overview of the key Northwest coastal findings in this report as well as a summary of its primary companion report published by Island Press in December 2013,Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities(Dalton et al 2013)

The State of Adaptation in the United States: An Overview

Over the past two decades the adaptation landscape has changed dramatically. From its early days as a vague theoretical concept, which was often viewed as a threat to advocating for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, it has developed into a widely, albeit not universally, recognized governmental mandate to reduce societal vulnerability to climate change. While it is important to appreciate the progress that we are making on this issue, it is impossible to ignore the urgent need to do more. Smart investment can be made by reflecting on what is already underway in order to determine where to build on existing efforts and where to innovate new approaches to fill the gaps in the path forward. In this report we provide illustrative examples of the variety of work on climate change adaptation that is underway in the United States. This is by no means an exhaustive survey of the field; however it does provide insight into the dominant focus of work to date, the resultant gaps, and the opportunities available for advancing this essential aspect of sustainability. We focus on four areas of activity -- agriculture, natural resources, human communities, and policy. The general trends relevant to these sectors can be applied more broadly to other sectors and countries. Adaptation can be thought of as a cycle of activities that ultimately -- if successful -- reduces vulnerability to climate change. This process starts with identifying the impacts of climate change to determine the types of problems climate change might pose. This includes all of the research on the causes and the global, regional, and local manifestations of climate change, often referred to as impacts assessments

Climate change in the Northwest : implications for our landscapes, waters, and communities

Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities is a report aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about key climate impacts and consequences to various sectors and communities in the Northwest United States. This report draws on two recent state climate assessments in Washington in 2009 (Washington State Climate Change Impacts Assessment; http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/ia/waccia) and in Oregon in 2010 (Oregon Climate Assessment Report; occri.net/ocar) and a wealth of additional literature and research prior to and after these state assessments. As an assessment, this report aims to be representative (though not exhaustive) of the key climate change issues as reflected in the growing body of Northwest climate change science, impacts, and adaptation literature available at this point in time. This report process co-evolved with the process to produce the Northwest chapter of the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA), specifically through a shared risk frame-work to identify key risks of climate change facing the Northwest. Beginning with a workshop in December 2011, scientists and stakeholders from all levels and types of organizations from all over the Northwest engaged in a discussion and exercise to begin the process of ranking climate risks according to likelihood of occurrence and magnitude of consequences. The risks considered were previously identified in the Oregon Climate Change Adaptation Framework. A summary of the workshop was submitted as a technical input to the NCA (http://downloads.usgcrp.gov/NCA/Activities/north-westncariskframingworkshop.pdf). This initial risk exercise was continued by the lead author team of the Northwest chapter of the Third NCA resulting in several informal white papers that were (1) condensed and synthesized into the Northwest chapter of the Third NCA and (2) expanded on and added to forming the present report. We anticipate that this report will serve as (1) an updated resource for scientists, stakeholders, decision makers, students, and interested community members on current climate change science and key impacts to sectors and communities in Oregon, Washington, and Idaho; (2) a resource for adaptation planning, (3) a more detailed, foundational report supporting the key findings presented in the Northwest chapter of the Third NCA; and (4) a resource directing readers to the wealth of climate literature in the Northwest as cited in each chapter.Keywords: Climate change, energy supply, climate variability, water supply, environmental management, solar variability, National Climate Assessment, energy consumption, water treatment, heating, cooling, adaptation, mitigation, renewable energy, oil production, thermal electrics, future risk managemen

Preparing for Climatic Change: The Water, Salmon, and Forests of the Pacific Northwest

The impacts of year-to-year and decade-to-decade climatic variations on some of the Pacific Northwest’s key natural resources can be quantified to estimate sensitivity to regional climatic changes expected as part of anthropogenic global climatic change. Warmer, drier years, often associated with El Niño events and/or the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, tend to be associated with below-average snowpack, streamflow, and flood risk, below-average salmon survival, below-average forest growth, and above-average risk of forest fire. During the 20th century, the region experienced a warming of 0.8 ◦C. Using output from eight climate models, we project a further warming of 0.5–2.5 ◦C (central estimate 1.5 ◦C) by the 2020s, 1.5–3.2 ◦C (2.3◦C) by the 2040s, and an increase in precipitation except in summer. The foremost impact of a warming climate will be the reduction of regional snowpack, which presently supplies water for ecosystems and human uses during the dry summers. Our understanding of past climate also illustrates the responses of human management systems to climatic stresses, and suggests that a warming of the rate projected would pose significant challenges to the management of natural resources. Resource managers and planners currently have few plans for adapting to or mitigating the ecological and economic effects of climatic change

Preparing for Climatic Change: The Water, Salmon, and Forests of the Pacific Northwest

The impacts of year-to-year and decade-to-decade climatic variations on some of the Pacific Northwest’s key natural resources can be quantified to estimate sensitivity to regional climatic changes expected as part of anthropogenic global climatic change. Warmer, drier years, often associated with El Niño events and/or the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, tend to be associated with below-average snowpack, streamflow, and flood risk, below-average salmon survival, below-average forest growth, and above-average risk of forest fire. During the 20th century, the region experienced a warming of 0.8 ◦C. Using output from eight climate models, we project a further warming of 0.5–2.5 ◦C (central estimate 1.5 ◦C) by the 2020s, 1.5–3.2 ◦C (2.3◦C) by the 2040s, and an increase in precipitation except in summer. The foremost impact of a warming climate will be the reduction of regional snowpack, which presently supplies water for ecosystems and human uses during the dry summers. Our understanding of past climate also illustrates the responses of human management systems to climatic stresses, and suggests that a warming of the rate projected would pose significant challenges to the management of natural resources. Resource managers and planners currently have few plans for adapting to or mitigating the ecological and economic effects of climatic change

Preparing for Climate Change in Washington State

Snover will provide an overview of what we know about climate change. She will discuss how the choices that we make today will shape tomorrow's impacts. She will argue that planning should begin now. By preparing for a changing climate, we can build the ecological, political and socioeconomic capacity required to cope with climate change in Washington state

The stable hydrogen isotopic composition of methane emitted from biomass burning and removed by oxic soils: application to the atmospheric methane budget

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 1998The stable hydrogen isotopic composition (deltaD) of CH4 was developed for use as a constraint for the atmospheric CH4 budget by characterizing the deltaD of CH4 emitted from biomass burning and removed by oxic soils and the deltaD of atmospheric CH4 in tropospheric background air. These measurements were combined with literature values for the strength and deltaD of the other CH4 sources and sinks to develop regional, hemispheric and global CH4- deltaD budgets.The hydrogen kinetic isotope effect (KIE) during soil uptake of atmospheric methane was alphaDsoil = k(CH4)/k(CH 3D) = 1.099 +/- 0.030 and 1.067 +/- 0.007 for a native grassland and a temperate forest, respectively. This is significantly less than the KIEs associated with the other CH4 sinks. The interhemispheric asymmetry in the soil sink strength suggests a ∼5‰ difference between the overall KIEs during atmospheric CH4 loss in the two hemispheres.The deltaD of methane emitted from biomass burning (deltaDCH4(bb) ) measured in large-scale laboratory combustion experiments and the Brazilian Amazon was -233 +/- 2‰ and -210 +/- 16‰, respectively. These measurements suggest that deltaDCH4(bb) may have a relatively narrow deltaD range globally. Measurements of the fuel biomass deltaD content indicated a significant hydrogen KIE, of -130‰ to -180‰, during combustion.The mean deltaD of atmospheric CH4 at Cheeka Peak, Washington (48°N) was -92.6 +/- 0.5‰ with a seasonal cycle of amplitude 8.6 +/- 2.9‰ between 1991 and 1996. The seasonal cycle was controlled by the balance between CH4 emissions from bogs and removal by OH. The mean deltaD's for the northern and southern hemispheres were -93.0 +/- 1.9‰ and -83.3 +/- 1.5‰, respectively, determined from air samples collected at ∼150°W between 55°N and 65°S during 1989 to 1995. The southward deltaD increase resulted from the higher strength and deltaD of CH4 loss compared to the CH4 source in the southern hemisphere. The deltaD of the global CH4 source derived from the atmospheric measurements and the total KIE during CH4 loss was -280 +/- 37‰, in good agreement with -279 +/- 6‰ estimated from the strength and deltaD of the individual CH4 sources. This indicates that current understanding of the CH4-deltaD budget, including the determinations of deltaD CH4(bb) and alphaDsoil presented here, is robust

Successful Adaptation to Climate Change in the Coastal Context: Insights from Scientists and Practitioners

Adaptation to climate change is a common concern on policy and management agendas of many federal, state, local and tribal governments; planning for a climate-altered future is becoming more widespread and some adaptive actions are being taken. In each of the three West Coast states ‒ Washington, Oregon and California ‒ state agencies, governors, and some local and tribal entities have acknowledged the need for adaptation and begun to develop relevant scientific assessments and policy and strategy documents to prepare for and manage the impacts of climate change. This has led many decision-makers, program managers, funders, and other stakeholders to ask what adaptation success would look like and how one would evaluate adaptation effectiveness over time. The academic community is increasingly asking similar questions and publishing on this topic in peer-reviewed journals and books. This paper reports on a 2-year, transdisciplinary project engaging academic experts from a range of relevant disciplines as well as practitioner experts from each of the West Coast states (focusing particularly on findings from Washington) to develop some practice-relevant answers on what processes, accomplishments and outcomes count as success, how to set governance processes up for ongoing adaptive processes of learning and adjusting, and how to measure progress in a desirable direction when environmental conditions and concurrent pressures are uncertain and pose unpleasant, if not unprecedented challenges to coastal communities